Explaining Today’s Mortgage Rates

If you’re following mortgage rates because you know they impact your borrowing costs, you may be wondering what the future holds for them. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to answer that question because mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast.  But, there’s one thing that’s historically a good indicator of what’ll happen with rates, and that’s the relationship between the 30-Year Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Treasury Yield. Here’s a graph showing those two metrics since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:As the graph shows, historically, the average spread between the two over the last 50 years was 1.72 percentage points (also commonly referred to as 172 basis points). If you look at the trend line you can see when the Treasury Yield trends up, mortgage rates will usually respond. And, when the Yield drops, mortgage rates tend to follow. While they typically move in sync like this, the gap between the two has remained about 1.72 percentage points for quite some time. But, what’s crucial to notice is that spread is widening far beyond the norm lately (see graph below):If you’re asking yourself: what’s pushing the spread beyond its typical average? It’s primarily because of uncertainty in the financial markets. Factors such as inflation, other economic drivers, and the policy and decisions from the Federal Reserve (The Fed) are all influencing mortgage rates and a widening spread.Why Does This Matter for You?This may feel overly technical and granular, but here’s why homebuyers like you should understand the spread. It means, based on the normal historical gap between the two, there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.And, experts think that’s what lies ahead as long as inflation continues to cool. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, explains:“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal . . . However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”Similarly, an article from Forbes says:“Though housing market watchers expect mortgage rates to remain elevated amid ongoing economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking war on inflation, they believe rates peaked last fall and will decline—to some degree—later this year, barring any unforeseen surprises.”Bottom LineIf you’re either a first-time home buyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep on top of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts think will happen in the coming months.

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Homebuyers Are Getting Used to the New Normal

Before you decide to sell your house, it’s important to know what you can expect in the current housing market. One positive trend right now is homebuyers are adapting to today’s mortgage rates and getting used to them as the new normal.To better understand what’s been happening with mortgage rates lately, the graph below shows the trend for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate from Freddie Mac since last October. As you can see, rates have been between 6% and 7% pretty consistently for the past nine months:According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), mortgage rates play a significant role in buyer demand and, by extension, home sales. Yun highlights the positive impact of stable rates:“Mortgage rates heavily influence the direction of home sales. Relatively steady rates have led to several consecutive months of consistent home sales.”As a seller, hearing that home sales are consistent right now is good news. It means buyers are out there and actively purchasing homes. Here’s a bit more context on how mortgage rates have impacted demand recently. When mortgage rates surged dramatically last year, escalating from roughly 3% to 7%, many potential buyers felt a bit of sticker shock and decided to hold off on their plans to purchase a home. However, as time has passed, that initial shock has worn off. Buyers have grown more accustomed to current mortgage rates and have accepted that the record-low rates of the last few years are behind us. As Doug Duncan, SVP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, says:“. . . consumers are adapting to the idea that higher mortgage rates will likely stick around for the foreseeable future.”In fact, a recent survey by Freddie Mac reveals 18% of respondents say they’re likely to buy a home in the next six months. That means nearly one out of every five people surveyed plan to buy in the near future. And that goes to show buyers are planning to be active in the months ahead. Of course, mortgage rates aren’t the sole factor affecting buyer demand. No matter where mortgage rates stand, people will always have reasons to move, whether it’s for job relocation, changing households, or any other personal motivation. As a seller, you can feel confident there is a market for your house today. And that demand is pretty strong as buyers settle into where rates are right now. Bottom LineThe way buyers perceive today’s mortgage rates is shifting – they’re getting used to the new normal. Steady rates are contributing to strong buyer demand and consistent home sales. Connect with a local real estate agent to get your house on the market and in front of those buyers.

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How Remote Work Expands Your Homebuying Horizons

Even as some companies transition back into the office, remote work remains a popular choice for many professionals. So, if you currently enjoy working from home or hope to be able to soon, you’re not alone. According to a recent survey, most working professionals want to work either fully remote or hybrid (see below):This trend is good news if you’re looking to buy a home because a remote or hybrid work setup can help you overcome some of today’s affordability and housing inventory challenges.More Work Flexibility Equals More Home OptionsRemote or hybrid work opens up a world of opportunities. That’s because it allows you to broaden your search for your next home since you’re no longer limited to living close to your workplace. With the freedom to work from anywhere, you can explore more affordable areas that may be located farther away from bustling city centers or your office. This flexibility can be a game changer while higher mortgage rates are making it difficult for some homebuyers to afford a home.An article from the New York Times (NYT) highlights how remote work can greatly assist you in overcoming that challenge:“. . . take advantage of the opportunity remote work has presented to move to more affordable communities (either farther out in the suburbs, or in another part of the country).”And, since the supply of homes for sale is still so low, another key challenge for you today may be finding something with all of the features you want and need. Because remote work allows you to broaden your search radius to include additional areas, you may actually have less trouble finding a home with the features you want the most because you’ll have a bigger pool of options to pick from.Working remotely gives you the flexibility to find an affordable home with the features you want. In other words, you have a better chance of getting what you need without blowing your budget. Bottom LineWorking remotely not only gives you more flexibility in your job but also presents a great chance to broaden your search for a home. Since you're not limited to a specific location, you have the opportunity to explore more options. Connect with a local real estate agent to discuss how this can expand your choices and help you find the perfect home.

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